Dazed and Confused

“World’s Finance Ministers are Dazed and Confused”

“World’s Finance Ministers are Dazed and Confused” blared the Bloomberg editorial headline . The White House’s erratic behavior has muddied the global economic outlook. According to the article:

Financial officials have rarely seemed so bewildered. At this week’s meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, finance ministers and central bank governors expressed alarm at rapidly deteriorating global growth prospects — thanks not to an unforeseen calamity, as with Covid-19, but to America’s erratic economic policy.

For the first time in my memory, the IMF didn’t provide an economic forecast. They couldn’t, because no one knows what’s going to happen. And they aren’t alone. Any company with global supply chains faces the same difficulty.

Car makers, chip makers, biotech etc. are all faced with this problem. Companies like Ford, General Motors, UPS, Thermo Fisher, Mattel, Proctor & Gamble, and PepsiCo either lowered or suspended their guidance for 2025.
That took some of the starch out of the recent stock market rally:

We believe these economic issues need to be priced into the stock market. And we are only just beginning to see the larger economic impact that will affect corporate earnings in the future.

One major indicator is the lack of ships coming into port right now. According to the Port of Los Angeles port optimizer website the number of ships scheduled for the week of May 4th is down 31% from last year.

That’s a lot.

It means that we are already seeing fewer goods from Asia (particularly China). And it could mean the start of much higher prices due to scarcity.

If less “stuff” comes in from China, there will be less to sell. Retailers will be forced to raise prices like they did during Covid. Consumer confidence is already tanking (last data point came out in March 2025). It fell for four consecutive months, we don’t expect that to change.

The question will be whether consumer confidence hits investor confidence. With this much economic uncertainty, we believe it must. That’s why we continue to sit on the sidelines.

For the Good,

The Mangrove Investor Team

Numbers You Need to Know

1944

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established in 1944 in the aftermath of the Great Depression of the 1930s. (IMF)

191

The IMF is governed by and accountable to 191 countries that make up its near-global membership. (IMF)

1 Trillion

The IMF is able to lend about $1 trillion to its member countries.(IMF)

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Sustainable investing has gained tremendous traction, with younger investors leading the charge. A recent Morgan Stanley report shows that 84% of U.S. individual investors are interested in sustainable investing. Among Millennials and Gen Z, this interest jumps to 85%.(Carbon Credits)

Why Native Communities Are The Future Of Impact Investing

In the search for the next frontier of innovation and opportunity, impact investors are increasingly looking toward Indian Country — a dynamic and under-invested market poised for transformative growth. (Forbes)

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