Fires in California – Is it Always Global Warming?

We hear much about Global Warming, particularly after a natural disaster. And the devastating fires in California are no exception. But not every snowstorm, drought, hurricane, or fire is the direct result of anthropogenic global warming. In the case of California, we can argue that it’s more about population density and management than global warming.
We know that the climate began warming about 20,000 to 25,000 years ago. At that time, ice covered about 8% of the earth. Sea levels were so low that you walk to Russia. Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico were twice as large as today. As you can see in this shoreline map.

We know that the current warming trend accelerated due to the massive increase in fossil carbon added to the atmosphere. In the last two hundred years or so.

But we don’t really understand the short-term effects it will have on our weather. And it’s important to understand the difference between climate and weather. Senator James Inhofe (R – Oklahoma) famously brought a snowball into the Senate chambers to dispute climate change. Snow is weather…

But that brings us to the California fires, which are a combination of weather and climate. Fires in California are a seasonal event made worse by drought. Humans don’t cause major regional droughts. Lack of precipitation does. And we don’t cause hurricane force “Santa Ana” winds either. They are both natural phenomena tied to climate cycles. And we don’t understand the relationship between droughts, Santa Ana winds, and climate change according to Bloomberg,

For the last several years, scientists have been debating whether Santa Anas will grow stronger or weaker, more frequent or more rare as the world warms — with little resolution. While some research has shown that these winds will become less common, the dry conditions that prime Southern California for blazes are expected to linger later in the season, colliding with the peak time of year for Santa Anas.

The fires in California rival hurricanes in terms of impacts. Many researchers will work to tie these fires to global warming to convince policymakers to act. And while that’s a worthwhile effort, it can’t be done in isolation.

The immediate concerns should be on mitigation. We can’t afford to spend another decade wringing our hands on global concerns when citizens are dying today.

For the Good,
The Mangrove Investor Team