The current banking fears weighed down the market this week

So, I thought it would be good to talk about time scales. We’ll use the S&P 500 as an example.
Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 for the past ten days:

This chart tells us a different story. It still looks like a bull market. It’s lumpy, but it has the classic higher highs and higher lows. Again, this looks like a good market. Let’s take an even longer view.

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 for the last year:

This chart tells us a different story. It still looks like a bull market. It’s lumpy, but it has the classic higher highs and higher lows. Again, this looks like a good market. Let’s take an even longer view.

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 for the last year:

This chart tells us a different story. The S&P 500 is well off the highs from last March. The index fell 12% over the past year. And this chart shows us a bottom in October 2022. 

I’m not a chartist, but this kind of view helps me clear out the hyperbolic news stories. My read on this is that the market fell hard in 2022, from January to October. We had a strong, 9-month bear market that took the S&P 500 down 24%. And since then, stocks fought back.

And there are headwinds. 

Inflation, bank crises, politics, and war all vie for our attention. They all want to affect the way we invest. That’s why it’s good to step back and just look at the numbers. These charts show me a much more optimistic view for 2023. 

That may change in the next month. But right now, I’m ignoring the news in favor of the charts.

Sincerely,
Matt B.