New Energy Weekly – Chocolate Is Up

As you probably noticed in preparation for Halloween, the price of chocolates is up

Way, way up!

The reason is cocoa prices. The commodity had an incredible run over the past two years:

For a decade, the price of cocoa hovered around $3,000 per metric ton. But in 2023, the price soared to record highs. Analysts blame adverse weather conditions in West Africa as the cause.

The dry conditions led to a 22.4% lower yield in 2024. That means cocoa prices could remain high through 2025. According to David Branch, of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute:

“Warehouse stocks are at 50-year lows, they’ve been declining for the last 15 months. The lower production has the market in turmoil, and as a result, we’ve seen futures prices just skyrocket over the last two years because chocolate demand, for cocoa flavors and confectionery, is still going up year-over-year.”

Candy makers responded to the higher prices by reducing the amount of chocolate in candies (and chocolate chips in cookies). They are offering more non-chocolate candies like gummies. They are changing traditional chocolate candies to other flavors – like a new cinnamon Kit Kat bar with no chocolate. And shrinking the size of the bars but selling them as the same price (the dreaded shrinkflation).

According to news agency Reuters chocolate (and candy in general) prices are outpacing food inflation. That’s certainly the case with Halloween candy here in Florida. The prices of the traditional bags of Hershey’s miniature chocolate bars and Reece’s peanut butter cups shocked us.

We’ll just have to bear this burden and hope the farmers can bring a bumper crop of cocoa in next year.

For the Good,

The Mangrove Investor Team