

The Price of One of Humanity’s First Metals Surged Due to AI
One of humanity’s longest-used metals is back in the spotlight today
Thanks to alternative energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence (AI), demand exploded.
As with many of the industrial metals, supply just can’t keep up.
This month, we will focus on a company that produces 6.5% of the world’s tin supply. And we’ll show you why we believe it is a must have for your portfolio.
But first, a little history.
Tin’s Long History with Humanity
Metal tools elevated civilizations around the world. Archaeologists and historians often use tool materials to mark progressions in civilization. Cultures in Asia and Europe began making metal tools as long as 11,000 years ago.
The oldest known use of metal was copper.
The earliest native copper tools date back to 9000 BC, in the Middle East. A copper pendant from northern Iraq dates back to 8700 BC.
Eventually, these peoples figured out how to smelt the metal from ore. Shortly after learning to smelt copper, they began to smelt tin as well. The addition of tin changed the world. Because, when they added a small amount of tin to the molten copper, it created an alloy called bronze.
The Bronze age began around 3,000 BC.
Bronze turned out to be a much more useful metal. It was harder than copper. And it becomes workable at a much lower temperature. Bronze tools and particularly weapons proved to be much better than copper.
And that’s how tin became one of the world’s most important metals.
The first record of humans mining tin dates back to 3500 BC in Turkey. Those early users made rings and bottles from the malleable metal. The ancient Chinese began mining tin around 700 BC.
Tin was the reason that Rome invaded Britain in 43 AD.
That’s more than 5,000 years of history between humans and tin.
And yet one of our most innovative technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), won’t work without this humble metal.
Nearly half of tin use today comes from solder. That’s the molten metal used to connect wires and circuits. As the demand for AI grows, so does the demand for the servers that host them. Semi-conductor sales grew 19.3% from May 2023 to May 2024.
But that’s not its only application. Defense industries around the world need secure tin supplies. According to the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, Dr. Laura Taylor-Kale:
“Tin refinement and processing capacity is essential for both defense and commercial aviation and microelectronics. The first Defense Production Act investment in the tin industrial base will directly counter the United States’ reliance on foreign tin refiners and reduce supply chain vulnerabilities.”
The U.S. in particular, needs more tin. According to the International Tin Association, the country consumed 35,800 tons in 2023. But they only produced 10,000 tons.
New tin demand comes from electronics, semiconductors, renewable energy, and electric vehicles. These are all areas expecting huge growth.
However, as we often say about these metals, supply can’t respond fast enough. Analysts at Fitch Solutions revised their 2024 price forecast for 2024 from $28,000 per metric ton to $30,000 per metric ton. However, tin prices already eclipsed that.
So far in 2024, the price rose 33%. The price chart below shows the trend. However, it’s quarterly data, so it doesn’t have the most up to date information:

What we can see is that the price of tin is not near its recent high from 2022.
A New Mining Proponent in Africa – Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)
Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM) is a $1.6 billion tin miner. The company owns the Bisie tin mine (84%) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
There is some jurisdictional risk in the DRC.
However, Alphamin has an 11-year history of work in the country. Exploration began in 2014.

The Bisie tin mine produced 4.3% of the world’s mine tin supply until this year. A just completed expansion increased that to 6.5%.
The Bisie mine went into commercial production in 2019. It steadily increased production from 10,000 tons per year in 2020, 11,000 tons in 2021, and up to 12,500 tons in 2022.
In 2024, the company completed the Mpana South development that will increase the production to 20,000 tons per year.
Shares of the company are up on excellent financials, as you can see here:

We believe this is a trend that will continue. As you can see in the financial breakdown below, the company’s expansion had a massive impact on its tin sales and its revenue.
The company’s financial position changed dramatically from 2023 to 2024, as you can see in the table below. The expanded production and higher tin prices impacted the earnings in 2024:

The company has no debt. It produced a record volume of tin in the second quarter of 2024.

It reported 4,027 metric tons of tin for the quarter, up 28% from the first quarter. In addition, the price of tin increased by 20% per ton over the period. That contributed to the strong sales.
Based on International Tin Association data, Alphamin is the highest grade, low-cost tin producer.
What we like about the Bisie mine is that it could become one of the world’s largest long-life tin producers.
The area around the mine proved to be fertile for new exploration.
What we like about Alphamin is that the company embraces the “New Mining” philosophy. They contribute to the community – 4% of the in-country expenses go to community development.
They are a certified Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) compliant tin producer.
What we like about Alphamin is that the stock hasn’t fully responded to the higher production. And as tin demand from AI continues to grow, the price will climb as well.
Action to Take: Buy Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM) up to $1.50 per share. Use a 30% trailing stop on the position. That means, if you pay $1.50 per share, you should sell them if the close below $1.05 per share. That limits our risk if Alphamin shares fall on unexpected news.
We see two main risks with Alphamin.
First, it’s a single asset producer. That means if something goes wrong at Bisie, the company has no revenue.
Additionally, there is price risk. The tin price rose 33% in 2024 on strong fundamentals. However, if we see weakness in demand for electronics, it could fall again.
However, right now we deem those risks to be low, compared with the potential reward. The company paid out $0.06 per share in interim dividends. If you buy shares before October 25, 2024, you will be eligible for that payment.
That’s a 100% increase over the past dividend payments.
We expect to see the share price dip after that date. So, if we don’t care about the dividend, we can wait to buy after the distribution date and get a lower price.
For the Good,
The Mangrove Investor Team