The “Godot Recession” Stifled the Market

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023 just came out. As you would expect, the internet was suddenly filled with economists. It was a good day for the stock market, as this Tweet shows.

There is an old saying that a bull market climbs a wall of worry. And today, the worry is “when will the recession arrive?”

Spoiler alert, it is probably behind us. 

The market expects (and priced in) a 0.25% interest rate hike. And the economic numbers look solid. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks inflation, fell to 3.1% in June, which is back to normal. And the forecast is 2.4% in 2024. 

That means good news should push stocks higher.

And as we continue to wait for the recession, fears will fade. Investors will come back to the riskier stocks, looking for returns. That is when our energy positions will really take off. 

For the Good,

The Mangrove Investor Team